University of Michigan researcher Dr. Richard Curtin is predicting RV wholesale shipments in 2004 will rise 2.3 percent over totals forecasted for 2003. Curtin's 2004 forecast of 320,200 RV shipments will come very close to reaching 1999's peak level of 321,000 shipments, the highest in a quarter century.

The RV industry is projected to earn record year-end revenues for 2003--becoming an estimated $12 billion-a-year industry (as measured by the retail value of wholesale shipments). Not only have RV retail sales increased this year over 2002's robust levels, but wholesale shipments are on track to post their best six-year period in a quarter century, according to market data compiled by Recreation Vehicle Industry Association (RVIA).

"RV sales are anticipated to strengthen in 2004," predicts Curtin, director, surveys of consumers, University of Michigan Survey Research Center. "A stronger economy, higher incomes, continued low interest rates and concerns about the safety of international travel will continue to bolster the appeal of RVs," he explains. Other recent economic factors in the RV industry's favor are lower taxes, gains in home values and the stock market revival, according to Curtin, who produces the Index of Consumer Sentiment released monthly to business clients and the media.

"Helping drive RV sales are the vast baby boomer market and the surging popularity of driving vacations in the United States," confirms RVIA President David J. Humphreys. "Families enjoy the greater freedom, flexibility, control and comfort RVs provide--especially in today's travel climate."

During October 2003, RV shipments jumped 11.2 percent from September and 3.8 percent over the same month in 2002, making it the largest October in 27 years of RV deliveries. Many RV manufacturers report they have boosted production to keep pace with growing consumer demand for their products. Rising orders have prompted some RV manufacturers to hire additional workers, open new assembly lines, expand existing plants and construct new facilities.

The RV industry's optimism was evident at RVIA's National RV Trade Show earlier this month in Louisville, Ky., which drew record dealer attendance and generated sizable increases in orders reported by manufacturers. Exhibitors reported double-digit sales increases from orders written at the show.

Long-term trends point to substantial RV market growth because of favorable demographics. As baby boomers enter their prime RV-buying years over the next decade, the number of RV-owning households is projected to rise 15 percent between 2001-2010, outpacing overall U.S. household growth of 10 percent, according to a 2001 University of Michigan study.

The study found the number of RVs owned by those 35 to 54 grew faster than all other age groups between 1998-2001, bolstered by an industry advertising campaign launched in 1997 aimed at the baby boomer. The Go RVing Coalition's national advertising campaign of print, television, radio and Internet ads is targeting adults age 30- 64. The industry will spend approximately $50 million on the current three-year phase of this market expansion effort.

RVIA (rvia.org) is the national association representing 500 manufacturers and component suppliers producing approximately 98 percent of all RVs made in the United States.