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This time last year the Recreation Vehicle Industry Association spoke of the strength in the RV market as deliveries to retailers had climbed to 222,300 units. This year the story is much the same except deliveries are up even more, to 254,200 units, their best ten-month total since 1978. October's 24,900 units was this month's best in twenty years as seasonally adjusted, October shipments were measured at nearly 288,000 units. Recent interest rate cuts helped bolster sagging consumer durable sales in October and inflation remains at near record lows. Although concern that the economy will begin to slow does exist, witness the Index of Consumer Sentiment which declined for the sixth consecutive month finishing 97.4 in the October survey; according to the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center, this has not been reflected in RV shipments. "While it is true Consumer Sentiment has declined about 10% since the beginning of the year, that represents only half the average decline in the Index typically recorded before recessions," reported Dr. Richard Curtin, director of the University of Michigan Consumer Research Center. "While this decline warrants concern, unless further substantial losses are reported in coming months there is little reason to expect the onset of recession during 1999." Retail sales data, as reported by manufacturers, continued to push upward as well. Sales of all recreation vehicles reported were at levels higher than this same period one year ago. In October, sales of folding camping trailers were at 115.5 in the retail index, meaning sales were 15% higher this October than in October, one year ago. Towable RVs Deliveries to retailers of all towable RVs were reported at 18,800 units in October, up slightly from last month and up 9.9% from this same month last year. Year-to-date, on the strength of conventional travel trailers, all towable RV shipments are now at 200,200 units, more than all of last year. Shipments of all conventional travel trailers did best in October, rising 22.7% over this month in 1997 to 8,100 units. Fifth-wheel travel trailers also did well, improving 3.9% in October to 5,300 units, their best October monthly total ever. Motorhomes All motorhome deliveries have also done well this year rising 19.6% in October to 6,100 units, as both type A and type C motorhomes continue their strong showing. Year to date, a total of 54,000 motorhome units have been shipped, just shy of the total for all of last year and up 15.9% over this same period in 1997. Conversion Vehicles Total deliveries of all conversion vehicles were reported at 11,500 units in October, and are now at 124,900 units of the year. Van conversions continue as the volume leader in this category and are off last year's pace the least. October did provide further evidence that the declines in conversions have slowed and may soon reverse themselves.
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