January 2003

The Recreation Vehicle Industry Association reports the Index of Consumer Sentiment weakened in January but RV shipments rose sharply again, reflecting the continuing divergence in these two economic indicators. Shipments of all RVs have made remarkable progress over the past twelve months while consumer sentiment has retrenched to 2001 levels.

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January wholesale shipments of all RVs continued at a torrid pace in January, rising 18.3% over a very good January last year. Shipments of all RVs totaled 25,200 units, just below January 2000 that was a twenty year high. Gains were best for conventional travel trailers, allowing towable RVs to advance at a faster rate than motorhome shipments this month.

Reflecting consumers; concerns about future economic conditions, the Index of Consumer sentiment sagged to near ten-year lows finishing at 82.4 in the January 2003 survey according to the University of Michigan’s Survey Research Center. The Index has lost all it had gained during the shortened 2002 recovery.

“While the potential war with Iraq is an important source of uncertainty, it is hardly the onlysource” reported Dr. Richard Curtin, director of the survey. “Nonetheless, it is likely that in the months ahead the war will have a larger impact on consumer confidence.”

Wholesale shipment gains weren’t the only bright spot in our January figures, retail sales continued to perform nicely as well, although at slightly lower levels of growth. Retail sales activity, as measured by surveys of manufacturers, were higher over the past twelve months in all but one of the categories we surveyed.

Towable RVs

All towable RVs were reported at 20,600 units this January, up 21.9% above this same month last year. Conventional travel trailers (including hybrid trailers) improved a staggering 44.4% this month on shipments of 11,700 units, the best January in thirty years. Fifth wheel travel trailers posted shipments of 5,000 units, up 8.7% over January last year. Folding camping trailers were off slightly with 3,200 units shipped in January and truck campers were off just 100 units.

Motorhomes

Shipments to retailers of all motorhomes were reported at 4,600 units in January, up 4.5% from this same month last year. Shipments of all type A motorhomes improved 6.9% to 3,100 units this month. Type B motorhomes slipped by just 100 units while type C motorhomes increased by 8.3% on shipments of 1,300 units.

Conversion Vehicles

Shipments to retailers of all conversion vehicles were reported at 5,400 units in January, up a solid 35% compared to this same month last year. Van conversions’ shipments were even with last January at 3,100 units. Pickup truck conversions and sport utility conversions were up the most, but on smaller totals.-RVIA

Factory- to-dealer deliveries of RVs are expected to reach their highest levels in 25 years as baby boomers continue to drive up sales, according to a newly released University of Michigan forecast for 2003.

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Total RV Shipments 1990-2003
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